Some bits from an interesting article.

The main idea is that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is extremely sick and the fight over his succession has begun between Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani. Feel lucky to be Omani! :)

The succession crisis was already clear some weeks ago. In late January, an open letter to Ahmadinejad attacked Rafsanjani’s people — without naming him, but its reference is clear enough — as “arrogantly consider(ing) themselves the sole saviors of the nation’s problems,” and trying to sabotage the country’s nuclear programs. The letter, written by a former presidential adviser, urged Ahmadinejad to take Rafsanjani to court.

The Rafsanjani crowd struck back...

Rafsanjani has taken extraordinary steps in recent days in an attempt to ensure he will be the next Supreme Leader, despite his lack of standing in the religious community. He went to the holy city of Qom and met with seventeen grand ayatollahs, to whom he said, we can’t wait for Khamenei to die before choosing his successor. We have to do it right away. Rafsanjani heads the Committee of Experts that chooses the Supreme Leader, so his pilgrimage to Qom was a preemptive strike to obtain approval for his next move, which is undoubtedly to elect himself. This was confirmed by an equally remarkable appearance on national television on Saturday...

While all this was going on, Rafsanjani’s supporters were openly speaking of his enormous security risk, hinting that the Ahmadinejad forces might elect to physically attack their main opponent. Rafsanjani certainly should fear such action; the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards are not likely to sit out the coup that is so clearly under way. There is certainly no lack of physical violence in the streets of Iran these days. According to Iran Press News, recent fighting in Isfahan Province yielded at least ten fatalities among the regime’s guards and the Basij, thirteen wounded among government ranks, and four “drug smugglers” were killed. And there are numerous reports of armed conflict in Khuzestan—where the regime continues to hang Ahwazi Arab dissidents at a horrific rate — and in Belouchi areas, where the repression has intensified in recent months...

The gravity of the moment is perhaps best demonstrated by the reemergence of the country’s aged dissident ayatollah, 85-year-old Hosseynali Montazeri. One of Khomeini’s closest allies, and long presumed the logical successor to the founding fanatic, Montazeri was locked into his home for seven years because of his increasingly vigorous opposition to the Islamic Republic. Twice in the past two weeks he has denounced Ahmadinejad and called for the release of political prisoners and open political competition. “Is it not better to avoid extremism and open the political space?” he asked. “Unfortunately, there are still academics, students, intellectuals and ordinary people jailed for false or political reasons. The wise thing to do is to release them.”

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MWQ1OGQyZTJiNzY0OTQ5MGMzODRhZjk4YWJhZDdjNzA=

An interesting story indeed. I've always admired old Montazeri. Hopefully, the poor Iranians will find the way out of their intractable mess into some more stable and humane way of life.